The Aurora Odds Index: Discovering the Best States for Northern Lights Viewing

Science

As the solar activity intensifies, the mesmerizing phenomenon of the northern lights, or auroras, is becoming visible farther south than ever before. However, the likelihood of witnessing this stunning display varies significantly from state to state. Factors such as dry air, dark skies, high latitude, and frequent clear nights enhance visibility, while humidity, cloud cover, and light pollution can hinder it. To quantify these differences, The Action Network has developed the Aurora Odds Index, which ranks all 50 states based on their long-term environmental conditions for aurora viewing.

The Aurora Odds Index assigns each state an Aurora Viewing Chance percentage, representing the overall likelihood of seeing the northern lights in a typical active year. This percentage is not a nightly forecast but rather a baseline score derived from a combination of four critical factors: latitude (referred to as “Aurora Reach”), the number of clear nights per year, statewide darkness levels, and average humidity. The results reveal intriguing insights into the best locations for aurora enthusiasts.

At the top of the index is Arizona, which boasts an impressive Aurora Viewing Chance of 60%. The state’s exceptionally dry desert air, coupled with abundant clear nights and low light pollution, creates optimal conditions for aurora visibility, even surpassing Alaska, traditionally known as the aurora capital. Despite Alaska’s geographical advantage of sitting directly beneath the auroral oval, its frequent cloud cover and higher humidity push it down to the fourth position in the index.

The Mountain West region dominates the top rankings, with Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Idaho, Colorado, and Wyoming all making the top eight. These states benefit from high elevation, dry air, and widespread dark skies, which collectively enhance their aurora viewing conditions. Interestingly, states like Minnesota and Maine, known for their northern latitudes, rank lower than expected due to humidity and cloud cover, emphasizing that clear skies are just as vital as geographical location.

Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma also rank within the top 20, thanks to their high number of clear nights, which improve visibility even at lower latitudes. Conversely, many eastern states suffer from light pollution, which severely limits their potential for aurora sightings. The ideal states for consistent aurora viewing combine high latitude, dark skies, dry air, and a frequency of clear nights.

Here are the top 20 states with the highest chances of seeing the aurora:

  1. Arizona - 60%
  2. Nevada - 59.42%
  3. New Mexico - 56.91%
  4. Alaska - 55.64%
  5. Utah - 52.58%
  6. Idaho - 51.84%
  7. Colorado - 51.11%
  8. Wyoming - 50.79%
  9. Montana - 49.83%
  10. South Dakota - 47.41%
  11. North Dakota - 46.41%
  12. Maine - 43.42%
  13. Nebraska - 43.41%
  14. Kansas - 43.26%
  15. Minnesota - 41.51%
  16. Oklahoma - 40.45%
  17. New Hampshire - 40.41%
  18. Oregon - 40.04%
  19. Iowa - 38.95%
  20. Missouri - 38.59%

The Aurora Odds Index serves as a valuable resource for those eager to experience the northern lights, highlighting the importance of environmental conditions in determining visibility. As solar activity continues to rise, the opportunity to witness this natural wonder may extend to more locations, making it an exciting time for aurora enthusiasts across the United States.